New Afghanistan opinion poll 2009

An important poll surveying Afghans' attitude towards their country's development and foreign forces has been released. This is the fourth such poll carried out since 2005 and jointly commissioned by the BBC, ABC News of America and ARD of Germany. One good thing about this is that it is possible to look at the change of opinion over time since the questions asked are the same or similar from one poll to another. The BBC website has released the results in full and some commentary/analysis.
This snapshot of national opinion took answers from more than 1,500 people. The sample was divided equally between men and women and taken from all of the country's 34 provinces. Continuing violence in Helmand Province in southern Afghanistan limited the sample size there and views there seemed different.

Some of the main points I take from the survey's results:
-Afghans increasingly think their country is going in the wrong direction (38% today as opposed to 6% in 2005). This seems to correlate with a perception of decreasing quality in various aspects of their lives.
-Karzai seems to enjoy less popular support than previously.
-The role of the US in Afghanistan is seen in increasingly negative terms: only 5% see it as "excellent" today, as opposed to 20% in 2005.
-The Taliban are increasingly disliked and are seen, by far, as the biggest danger to Afghanistan.
-About US forces in Afghanistan: 63% strongly support or somewhat support their presence in Afghanistan, although this is decreasing, from 78% in 2006.

-Perhaps the two most important questions regarding foreign forces and their withdrawal are the following:
1) "Do you think the number of U.S. and NATO/ISAF forces in Afghanistan should be increased, decreased or kept at the current level?"
18% said the forces should be increased, 44% decreased, and 29% kept at current level.
This shows that the Obama administration is going against the Afghans' wishes as he is planning for about 30,000 additional US troops in Afghanistan.
2) "When do you think such forces should withdraw from Afghanistan?"
51% said they should leave within 2 years or faster, up from 26% in 2005.
This reflects a clear pattern over the last few years: the Afghan population increasingly thinks foreign forces should leave the country sooner rather than later. It is the first time that more than 50% say so.
Some important implications I see about the question of withdrawal, which has been a disputed issue within progressive circles and the peace movement: the first thing to remember is that what anybody outside Afghanistan thinks is not so relevant--what counts more is what the Afghans think, as they are the ones who have to live with the occupation. Today it seems that a majority among them would like to see the troops leave within 2 years, and only a relatively small number (18%) say their numbers should be increased. However, it seems that there are not yet calls from a majority of the population for the troops to leave immediately. This doesn't necessarily mean that Afghans love the troops, but most probably that they fear that if the troops leave, more violence could result, in particular from fighting among the Taliban and the warlords, many of the latter being currently in power thanks to strong US support since the 2001 invasion (all warlords have been on the CIA payroll at one point or another since 2001, as Ahmed Rashid reports in his recent book, Descent into Chaos). The Taliban and the warlords have a proven record of committing atrocities, since the time of the Soviet occupation in the 1980s and then during factional fighting in the 1990s. That's why Afghans are worried that if foreign troops leave immediately and those groups are left in power, this violence could increase.

I think the best solution is to withdraw troops gradually and as soon as possible, and to combine this with policies such as disarmament of warlords and Taliban, while empowering progressive groups in Afghanistan (many NGOs like RAWA, Malalai Joya, etc.). Huge reparations should also be paid to Afghanistan by the US and Russia for having wrecked the country.