Monday, February 9, 2009

Iranian presidential elections, June 2009

Iran plans to hold presidential elections this June 2009. Those elections are important since they will affect US-Iran relations, and may decide whether or not military strikes will be averted. Ahmadinejad, the current president, will run again, but Khatami, a former more liberal president, announced he would also run.

Juan Cole has an excellent discussion of the issues involved and Khatami's and Ahmadinejad's records (See Cole's blog entry for February 9 2009). Among the main points:

-Khatami studied Jurgen Habermas and then applied Frankfurt School critical theory to his analysis of the need for a more open society in Iran (not sure if this is so reassuring).

-Ahmadinejad has given a poor economic performance, especially regarding inflation, which now runs at 24%.

-Ahmadinejad has been more antagonistic toward the US than Khatami, so the latter would be better poised to reduce tensions in that field, which could be an opportunity with Obama. But the US and Western Europe have such a poor record of lies and disinformation regarding this issue, that changing the Iranian president won't solve everything--but it might reduce significantly the likelihood of an Israeli attack.

Hopefully Khatami will win the elections.

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