Tuesday, May 4, 2010

Afghanistan survey

A new survey on Afghanistan is quite interesting. Basically, the operation in Marjah seems not to have won hearts and minds, on the contrary, it has led to increased resentment against NATO among locals. The operation is estimated to have produced about 30,000 refugees.
67% of the Afghans interviewed by ICOS believe that the military operation was “bad for the Afghan people”.
The Pentagon gave a testimony which asserted the situation was contrary, in a clear propaganda effort. The testimony is here.
The survey confirms trends already apparent: NATO night raids, etc. are killing civilians and angering the population. But also, Afghans don't like either the Taliban or NATO.
67% of the Afghans interviewed opposed a strong NATO presence in their province, and 71% say that foreign forces should leave Afghanistan entirely. This balances an earlier opinion report that had led to more rosy conclusions because it couldn't reach some parts of the country where the insurgency was active (BBC poll).
Lack of substantial progress in the fight against the Taliban is also reflected by the fact that 67% of Afghans interviewed doubted that NATO could ultimately prevail over the insurgency. 14% of respondents were unequivocal in their conviction that the international community and volunteered the Afghan government would “never” succeed.
At the same time, 67% of interviewed Afghans say that international and government forces should conduct a military operation against insurgents in Kandahar. This may come as a surprise, given the overall negative assessment of the impact of the Operation Moshtarak.
Yet the underlying positive message is the desire of the Afghans to be rid of the Taliban‟s presence and violence: what they do not want, however, is to bear the type of unmitigated impact of the fighting between the insurgents and NATO forces that they and their families are experiencing. Maybe RAWA and Joya are right then?
61% of those interviewed by ICOS stated that the operation has made them feel more negative about the presence and activities of foreign forces.

The Afghans interviewed strongly support a process of dialogue with the Taliban, with 74% approving of negotiations. Combined to the fact that people don't like the Taliban, this suggests that they're just tired of the fighting.

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