Iraq elections

In the 2005 elections in Iraq, Sunnis boycotted the elections, resulting in the overwhelming victory of the Iran-backed United Iraqi Alliance (UIA), a coalition of seven Shi'ite parties that included the Supreme Iraqi Islamic Council (SIIC), al-Dawa and the Sadrists. Maliki wants to make sure that the results of 2005 are repeated in 2010 and he will resort to unorthodox means, like banning his adversaries from running for power, to achieve that result. Otherwise, his days in the premiership are clearly numbered.

Disqualified Sunni politicians are frantically looking for regional allies to back their claims, but it might be advisable for them look within Iraq for potential Shi'ite allies who share a desire to bring down Maliki. Potential allies are two hopefuls for the premiership: vice president and head of the SIIC, Adel Abdul Mehdi, and former prime minister Ibrahim al-Jaafari. Mehdi has had his eyes set on the premiership since 2006, but was famously defeated by a single vote within the UIA.

Jaafari was ejected from power that same year, accused by many of being responsible for the sectarian unrest after the February 2006 bombing of a holy Shi'ite shrine in the mixed town of Samarrah. Both are heavyweights within the Shi'ite community; the powerful business elites back Mehdi while Jaafari is supported by influential clerics such as Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani.