Sunday, November 1, 2009

Iran nuclear deal

An article reminding us that:

Iran had originally proposed to refuel the Tehran research reactor through purchasing fuel assemblies from international providers, including the United States -- in fact, involving the United States was Iran’s idea of a confidence-building measure. There was a clear consensus within the Iranian leadership in support of this proposal, with President Ahmadinejad speaking about it publicly.

The United States responded with interest to Iran’s initiative but proposed, instead, that Iran ship most of Iran’s low enriched uranium stockpile outside the country for fabrication into fuel rods for the reactor in question. From an Iranian perspective, there are two potential flaws with this approach. First, Iran’s experience of prior cooperation with international actors on its nuclear program has been disappointing. During the 1970s, Iran invested more than $1 billion to build a French reactor which was contractually supposed to guarantee Iran access to that reactor’s fuel. But, when the Islamic Republic was established, France reneged. Now Iran is being called on to trust France, again, to return its fuel.

Second, at Iran’s current production rate for low enriched uranium, it would take Tehran nine to 12 months to replenish the uranium that would be sent out of the country under this deal, if it were sent out in a single batch. For serious national security planners in Tehran, whether they like Ahmadinejad or not, this is potentially problematic as it leaves almost a year’s window of increased vulnerability to an Israeli or U.S. military attack.

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